Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x700b…8d0b other 1336 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,079 (+2%) realized −$3,710 · open +$4,789
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%352W / 318L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day82.7pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5,950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$3,683
other 23% +$8,442
crypto 1% −$91
tech 0% +$132
world 0% +$69
weather 0% +$29
finance 0% +$43
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +18.8% +7.5% 24% 22% +71.3%
≤30d 501 +16.8% +5.7% 49% 31% +9.2%
≤90d 670 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 35% +6.8%
all 670 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 35% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 35% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 26% -3.5%
15% -16.6% 21% -12.8%
20% -24.8% 18% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$5,950
Realized−$3,710
Unrealized+$4,789
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses352 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions274
Markets (closed)670 / 1336
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day82.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 274 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner T1 78¢ 100¢ $69 $89 +$20 (+29%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $80 +$34 (+77%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $72 −$4 (-5%)
Will Paris Gentle Mates finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 50¢ $1 $50 +$49 (+4855%)
Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves Yes 49¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4800%)
Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves Yes 49¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4800%)
Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves Yes 49¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4800%)
Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves Yes 49¢ $1 $49 +$48 (+4800%)
Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Dean Henderson: 5+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Dean Henderson: 2+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Mark Flekken: 3+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $1 $48 +$48 (+4750%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Jun 29 $22 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $1 +$16 +1464%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $41 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? Jun 28 $1 +$19 +1900%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $150 +$209 +140%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $95 +$17 +18%
Will anyone say "Chat" during Love Island E22? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Verticality" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Luis Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 27 $59 −$58 -99%
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Jun 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots Jun 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Worl Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $149 +$8 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $14 +$14 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $15 +$18 +119%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $403 +$134 +33%
Map Handicap: BIG.A (-1.5) vs Esport BERG (+1.5) Jun 27 $4 +$3 +72%
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ assists Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $172 +$271 +158%
Martin Baturina: 2+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Coppa il Mondo T10: Pralboino vs Bergamo Super XI - Completed match? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings - Comple Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Noni Madueke: 2+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $424 +$426 +100%
Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $1 +$19 +1900%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29? BUY No $1 15m
Will James Harden play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will James Harden play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will James Harden play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will James Harden play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will James Harden play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will James Harden play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29? BUY No $0 27m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of June? BUY Yes $1 28m
Will James Harden play for the LA Clippers in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will James Harden play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI BUY Yes $1 36m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 42m
Will Kayda Bosse win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes $0 53m
Will Kayda Bosse win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes $0 53m
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5) BUY Team AION 30¢ $11 53m
Will Kayda Bosse win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes $1 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 60¢ $12 1h
Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves BUY Yes $1 1h
Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves BUY Yes $1 1h
Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves BUY Yes $1 1h
Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves BUY Yes $1 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals BUY Yes $1 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals BUY Yes $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,949.66 · official $5,949.68 (match) · 3500 history records