Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x700e…4515 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate78%91W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day211.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 57% -11.5%
≤30d 116 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 57% -11.5%
≤90d 116 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 57% -11.5%
all 116 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 57% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -20.0%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses91 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day211.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records