Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7010…9324
weather · 204 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$97 -60%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses9 / 187
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)196 / 204
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 8 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? No 85¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? No 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on April 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (W) Western Illinois Leathernecks 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on April 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will CJ McCollum lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-06? May 07 $2 +$3 +197%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 27? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $75 Week of April 27 202 May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of April 27 May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 27 202 May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on May 2? May 02 $0 $0 -95%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 29 $0 $0 -96%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$315 on the final day of trading of the Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April? Apr 29 $1 $0 -96%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 27? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $40? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 23 above $30? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be a perfect NCAA bracket? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Knicks make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will three people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April mee Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 28? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on April 28? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 39% −$47
sports 21% +$2
other 20% −$22
crypto 6% −$6
tech 5% −$8
economics 4% −$6
world 3% −$5
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $4 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? SELL No 96¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $4 33h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $4 33h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $5 45h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $5 45h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $2 2d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 40d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of BUY Yes 2¢ $0 43d
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43d
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April? BUY No 0¢ $1 43d
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$315 on the final day of trading of the BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 27 202 BUY No 0¢ $1 43d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $75 Week of April 27 202 BUY No 0¢ $1 43d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $77.50 Week of April 27 BUY No 0¢ $1 43d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April? BUY No 2¢ $1 44d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the w BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? BUY No 1¢ $0 45d
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45d
Will three people dissent the April Fed decision? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-79.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +421.2% +371.5% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤30d 3 +421.2% +371.5% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤90d 196 -77.7% -79.8% 5% 4% -78.1%
all 196 -77.7% -79.8% 5% 4% -78.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.8% 4% -78.1%
10% -81.7% 4% -80.2%
15% -83.5% 3% -82.1%
20% -85.1% 3% -83.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.12 · official $23.89 (match) · 643 history records