Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7010…d968 crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$66 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%124W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$10
other 10% −$17
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -6.1% -15.1% 77% 38% -5.9%
≤30d 154 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 36% -9.0%
≤90d 174 -9.3% -18.0% 71% 37% -9.2%
all 174 -9.3% -18.0% 71% 37% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 37% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 24% -17.9%
15% -33.0% 14% -25.8%
20% -39.6% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses124 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)174 / 187
History coverage34d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $136 $129 −$7 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 12h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.90 · official $204.90 (match) · 916 history records