Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7014…41ee other 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-2%) realized −$448 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%160W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$154
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$71
crypto 35% −$354
other 24% +$245
politics 1% −$85
world 1% −$31
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +14.5% +3.6% 50% 50% +4.8%
≤30d 24 +14.5% +3.6% 50% 50% +4.8%
≤90d 140 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 44% -0.6%
all 363 -0.6% -10.0% 44% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 34% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 30% -20.4%
15% -26.5% 30% -28.1%
20% -33.7% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized−$448
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses160 / 203
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions14
Markets (closed)363 / 377
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $133 $170 +$37 (+28%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots Yes 31¢ 50¢ $30 $47 +$18 (+59%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $29 $38 +$8 (+29%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots Yes 28¢ 50¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+78%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? No 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 48¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Ali Ahmed: 1+ shots Yes 40¢ 50¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots Yes 13¢ 50¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+285%)
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 22¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots Jun 27 $24 −$23 -99%
Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots Jun 26 $18 +$32 +172%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots Jun 26 $27 +$23 +83%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 +$36 +70%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $47 +$91 +193%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 +$88 +172%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 25 $14 +$33 +241%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$32 -62%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$71 +140%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $102 −$61 -60%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $26 +$90 +351%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $5 47m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $2 50m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $50 52m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $2 52m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $20 58m
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $118 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $26 4h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY No 29¢ $26 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $24 6h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 32¢ $13 6h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 31¢ $17 6h
Ali Ahmed: 1+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $16 7h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots BUY Yes 28¢ $15 8h
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $24 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 29h
Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots BUY Yes 25¢ $14 30h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $13 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 44h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 38¢ $19 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $51 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 31¢ $29 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $51 2d
Arda Güler: 3+ shots BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $591.10 · official $591.11 (match) · 3500 history records