Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7014…cf13 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139 (-9%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$23
world 7% −$99
weather 4% −$60
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -18.8% -26.5% 60% 42% -22.1%
≤30d 40 -18.8% -26.5% 60% 42% -22.1%
≤90d 40 -18.8% -26.5% 60% 42% -22.1%
all 40 -18.8% -26.5% 60% 42% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 42% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 28% -29.5%
15% -40.0% 12% -36.4%
20% -45.9% 10% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $210 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records