Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7014…8e4a other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$116 (+9%) realized +$115 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$106
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$107
sports 39% +$4
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤90d 12 +5.2% -4.8% 92% 25% +2.8%
all 15 +4.4% -5.6% 93% 20% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 20% +2.0%
10% -14.6% 20% -7.7%
15% -22.9% 20% -16.7%
20% -30.4% 7% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$174 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? No 63¢ 62¢ $369 $360 −$9 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $211 +$106 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $177 −$174 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $162 +$110 +67%
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? May 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026 May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? May 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 12 $164 +$68 +42%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Feb 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 04 $17 $0 +1%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 06 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $373 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $211 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $177 21d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 59¢ $162 44d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $164 70d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 95d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $10 103d
Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026 BUY No 100¢ $13 111d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 135d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $13 135d
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $7 147d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark BUY No 98¢ $11 153d
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? BUY No 100¢ $14 160d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $17 170d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.44 · official $415.44 (match) · 31 history records