Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x701c…4615 crypto 1727 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,340 (-16%) realized −$5,340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%1280W / 831L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 568 -65.7% -68.9% 28% 9% -25.0%
≤30d 988 -36.6% -42.7% 53% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 2111 -20.1% -27.7% 61% 34% -14.9%
all 2111 -20.1% -27.7% 61% 34% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 34% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 20% -23.0%
15% -40.9% 12% -30.4%
20% -46.7% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1280 / 831
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2111 / 1727
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2111 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 +$2 +850%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $61 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $64 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $74 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $75 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $69 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $77 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $64 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $79 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $87 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $86 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records