Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x701c…db31 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.8% +12.0% 67% 60% -8.7%
≤30d 31 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 58% -10.9%
≤90d 31 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 58% -10.9%
all 31 +21.1% +9.6% 65% 58% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 58% -10.9%
10% -0.9% 52% -19.4%
15% -10.5% 45% -27.2%
20% -19.3% 42% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$40 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $72 +$60 +84%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $87 +$15 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $280 −$274 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $41 +$63 +155%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $36 +$35 +98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $125 +$39 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$16 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $66 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $43 +$52 +122%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $107 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$5 -33%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $5 −$4 -81%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$11 +31%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$7 +143%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$12 +229%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 +$10 +44%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $55 +$11 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$22 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$31 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 44¢ $132 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 23¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 1¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 30¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 16¢ $56 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $280 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 9¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $13 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 48¢ $59 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 12¢ $15 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $45 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $25 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 23¢ $37 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $34 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $21 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 29¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 41¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 20¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 53¢ $82 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 17¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 10¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 58¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 56¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 38¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 14¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records