Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x701d…1728 other 110 markets active 5d ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+2%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate73%80W / 30L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$3
other 48% +$86
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% +$10
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -43.9% -49.2% 50% 50% -18.7%
≤90d 13 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 15% -10.5%
all 110 +16.1% +5.0% 73% 14% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 14% -8.4%
10% -5.0% 9% -17.2%
15% -14.2% 7% -25.2%
20% -22.6% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses80 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage578d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $2 +$6 +291%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Mar 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 21 $29 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 11 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 05 $14 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $53 +$3 +5%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $4 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $4 $0 +4%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Nov 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 10 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 05 $60 +$2 +3%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? Oct 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Oct 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 17 $15 +$35 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 23 $3 +$77 +2930%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 25d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 29¢ $2 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $2 32d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 39d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 18¢ $2 60d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $2 71d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $6 71d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 76d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $128 85d
Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 86d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 11¢ $3 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $8 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 16¢ $11 88d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 16¢ $9 88d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 101d
Will Andrew Tate post 640-669 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 102d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 240 history records