Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x7021…2465 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+12%) realized +$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$56
sports 5% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 43% +10.6%
≤30d 14 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 43% +10.6%
≤90d 14 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 43% +10.6%
all 14 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 43% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 43% +10.6%
10% -29.4% 36% -0.0%
15% -36.2% 29% -9.7%
20% -42.4% 29% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$35 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 +$29 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$11 +51%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.60 · official $120.60 (match) · 35 history records