Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7023…e522 crypto 530 markets active 3h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$653 (+1%) realized +$692 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate83%437W / 89L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$69
14 days+$167
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$279
weather 40% +$125
world 8% +$163
other 1% +$5
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.5% -4.5% 91% 9% -7.9%
≤30d 156 +5.5% -4.5% 83% 10% -8.1%
≤90d 422 +5.9% -4.2% 83% 7% -8.7%
all 526 +4.8% -5.2% 83% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 7% -8.7%
10% -14.3% 6% -17.4%
15% -22.6% 4% -25.4%
20% -30.2% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$692
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses437 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)526 / 530
History coverage124d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $186 $191 +$5 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $158 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 11¢ 1¢ $49 $3 −$45 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $177 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 −$8 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $97 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 +$16 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $194 −$16 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $94 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $113 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $359 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $247 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $223 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $223 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $138 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $108 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $239 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $196 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $33 −$12 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $185 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $44 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $21 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $62 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $62 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $99 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $27 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $84 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $72 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $98 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $106 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $128 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $108 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $107 30h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $125 32h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $125 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $98 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.61 · official $477.61 (match) · 2213 history records