Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7024…4c4c crypto 602 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (650 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32,932 (-863%) realized −$32,924 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%44W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day650.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,424
world 1% −$8
other 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (650 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 -56.1% -60.3% 7% 7% -34.9%
≤30d 588 -56.1% -60.3% 7% 7% -34.9%
≤90d 588 -56.1% -60.3% 7% 7% -34.9%
all 588 -56.1% -60.3% 7% 7% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover650.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.3% 7% -34.9%
10% ← realistic here -64.1% 7% -41.1%
15% -67.6% 7% -46.8%
20% -70.8% 7% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$6 · ×7.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$32,924
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses44 / 544
Open positions1
Markets (closed)588 / 602
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day650.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $25 $16 −$8 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.35 · official $16.35 (match) · 3500 history records