Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
70 0x7025…229d finance 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$893 (-17%) realized −$741 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$123
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$634
crypto 11% −$17
other 10% −$113
world 6% −$175
sports 1% −$30
politics 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +54.0% +39.4% 50% 50% -31.7%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 18% 18% -36.2%
≤90d 33 -17.5% -25.3% 30% 30% -27.2%
all 33 -17.5% -25.3% 30% 30% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 30% -27.2%
10% -32.5% 27% -34.2%
15% -39.0% 18% -40.5%
20% -45.0% 15% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$78 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized−$741
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage94d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $480 $464 −$16 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $16 $26 +$10 (+65%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 13¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $36 $1 −$36 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $97 +$202 +208%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $302 −$300 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +712%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $99 −$70 -71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 21 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 04 $93 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $203 +$37 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 01 $150 +$50 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $19 +$22 +114%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $66 +$93 +141%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $622 +$282 +45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 23 $21 −$8 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $20 −$12 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 20 $959 −$959 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 20 $19 −$19 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 18 $656 −$58 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 12 $424 +$143 +34%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $20 −$18 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 10 $135 −$135 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $99 −$99 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $100 +$61 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $486 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $30 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $67 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $13 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 14d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $88 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL Yes 30¢ $124 39d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 24¢ $59 45d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $110 47d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.38 · official $610.49 (match) · 125 history records