Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
70 0x7026…7939 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$181 (+18%) realized +$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%44W / 71L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$200
14 days+$217
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$200
sports 29% +$25
crypto 3% −$20
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +19.1% +7.7% 41% 41% +16.8%
≤30d 108 +18.6% +7.3% 39% 39% +11.5%
≤90d 115 +15.0% +4.1% 38% 38% +9.9%
all 115 +15.0% +4.1% 38% 38% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 38% +9.9%
10% -5.9% 37% -0.6%
15% -15.0% 37% -10.2%
20% -23.3% 35% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses44 / 71
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage76d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 +$14 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$13 -51%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 +$17 +237%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$25 +80%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$13 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$19 -73%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 +$16 +241%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$21 -86%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 +$9 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$23 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$40 +194%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 +$25 +104%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$39 +609%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$52 +161%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$8 -70%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $48 +$37 +78%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$14 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$15 +120%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$14 -66%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -87%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$14 +874%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $29 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 3h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 6h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 8h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 11h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 28h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 28h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 31h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 31h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records