Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x702c…b1e6 other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,464 (+5%) realized +$1,366 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%163W / 78L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$33
14 days+$354
30 days+$695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,097
finance 25% +$145
sports 14% −$104
tech 7% +$61
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$8
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -11.3% -19.7% 56% 31% -9.9%
≤30d 156 -4.8% -13.9% 66% 32% -5.8%
≤90d 236 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 27% -5.6%
all 241 -2.1% -11.4% 68% 26% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 26% -6.1%
10% -19.9% 15% -15.1%
15% -27.6% 9% -23.3%
20% -34.7% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,019
Realized+$1,366
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses163 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions15
Markets (closed)241 / 256
History coverage100d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $192 $203 +$10 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $131 $154 +$23 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $107 $119 +$12 (+11%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $78 $67 −$11 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 97¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $28 $56 +$29 (+105%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 51¢ $64 $51 −$13 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 37¢ 96¢ $18 $48 +$30 (+161%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 25¢ 46¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+82%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $81 −$32 -40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $414 +$5 +1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $83 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 +$7 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$10 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$3 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $74 +$6 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $131 +$19 +15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$7 +95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $550 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $76 +$9 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $28 −$25 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $92 +$7 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$23 +49%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$8 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 −$20 -37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $88 +$3 +4%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$68 +202%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $121 +$23 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $356 −$199 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $140 −$33 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$41 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $300 8h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $100 8h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 45¢ $4 8h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $83 8h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $12 8h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 95¢ $14 8h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $4 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $61 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $8 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $8 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $9 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $8 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $94 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $9 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $37 10h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 10h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $50 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 16h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 15¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,018.63 · official $1,017.78 (match) · 1102 history records