Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x7032…0a8b sports 1177 markets active 1h ago coverage 360d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 359d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,317 (-3%) realized −$10,317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%556W / 620L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$3,277est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$497
7 days−$1,182
14 days+$305
30 days+$2,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$9,594
other 7% −$732
world 0% +$68
crypto 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 21% -54.7%
≤30d 185 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 50% -5.7%
≤90d 494 -3.0% -12.3% 49% 48% -7.6%
all 1176 -7.3% -16.1% 47% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -11.9%
10% -24.1% 45% -20.3%
15% -31.5% 42% -28.0%
20% -38.2% 37% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$220 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

360d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses556 / 620
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,277
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1176 / 1177
History coverage360d ⚠
Avg bet$306
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1176 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $57 +$32 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $227 −$224 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $113 +$114 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $138 −$75 -54%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $147 −$98 -66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $223 −$132 -59%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $353 −$114 -32%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $181 −$181 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $466 −$200 -43%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $101 −$99 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $276 +$241 +87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $288 −$284 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $563 −$555 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $686 −$124 -18%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 09 $350 +$337 +96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $227 −$222 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs TYLOO (+6.5) Jun 09 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $898 +$609 +68%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,007 −$285 -28%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $714 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $506 +$371 +73%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $345 +$294 +85%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $786 +$60 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $211 −$200 -95%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $335 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $507 +$452 +89%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $208 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $456 +$386 +84%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,002 +$569 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $293 +$140 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $304 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $340 −$335 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $333 +$611 +183%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1,216 −$38 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $801 +$772 +96%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Farés Ziam win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $201 −$197 -98%
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $486 +$368 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $356 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $306 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $294 −$290 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $362 +$337 +93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $568 −$165 -29%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $314 −$310 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 +$147 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026- BUY 45¢ $88 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $227 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $227 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $113 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 19¢ $63 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $50 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $147 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $138 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 43¢ $134 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 59¢ $134 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 38¢ $89 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 38¢ $89 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 62¢ $150 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 38¢ $150 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 50¢ $203 28h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 50¢ $96 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 50¢ $40 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 50¢ $40 6d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 50¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 35¢ $11 6d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $203 6d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) SELL Vitality 80¢ $398 6d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $153 6d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $203 6d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $517 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 52¢ $276 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $86.36 · 3500 history records