Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x703d…68f5 crypto 71 markets active 10h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-22%) realized −$40 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$48
world 7% −$6
politics 6% −$5
other 5% +$20
finance 5% −$10
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +30.0% +17.7% 68% 43% +12.4%
≤30d 47 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 55 -16.4% -24.4% 47% 31% -32.0%
all 55 -16.4% -24.4% 47% 31% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -32.0%
10% -31.6% 24% -38.5%
15% -38.2% 16% -44.4%
20% -44.3% 7% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions15
Markets (closed)55 / 71
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 2 Burnley FC? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 3¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $1 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 47h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 47h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.84 · official $24.79 · 139 history records