Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

70 0x7045…f6a1 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-29.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-22.0%	-29.4%	48%	48%	-11.3%
≤30d	23	-22.0%	-29.4%	48%	48%	-11.3%
≤90d	23	-22.0%	-29.4%	48%	48%	-11.3%
all	23	-22.0%	-29.4%	48%	48%	-11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.4%	48%	-11.3%
10%	-36.2%	48%	-19.8%
15%	-42.3%	30%	-27.5%
20%	-48.0%	22%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -26% → late -19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$66 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized+$17

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$123	$122	−$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	Over	57¢	56¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$6	−$6	-97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$30	−$30	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$36	+$17	+48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$60	+$33	+55%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$109	+$33	+31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$181	+$56	+31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$46	−$45	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$198	+$64	+32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$73	−$73	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$122	+$219	+179%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$299	−$299	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$145	−$144	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$78	+$37	+48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$18	+$11	+62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$194	+$201	+104%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$12	−$12	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$6	+$2	+31%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$12	−$11	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$124	+$80	+64%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$39	−$35	-90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$125	−$123	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	7¢	$6	57m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$30	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	BUY Over	57¢	$36	10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$124	11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$36	11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$60	23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$109	23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	55¢	$46	25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$181	25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$262	27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$198	31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$342	43h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$73	45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	35¢	$122	45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$299	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$145	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$78	2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	61¢	$18	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	33¢	$73	3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$12	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$121	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$8	3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$205	4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$125	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.72 · official $157.72 (match) · 42 history records