Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x704d…de12 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$402 (-16%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days+$23
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$406
world 48% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -12.2% -20.5% 25% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 8 -12.2% -20.5% 25% 0% -24.6%
all 8 -12.2% -20.5% 25% 0% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -24.6%
10% -28.1% 0% -31.8%
15% -35.1% 0% -38.4%
20% -41.4% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$109 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 28 $333 $0 +0%
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 28 $336 −$2 -1%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Jun 26 $31 $0 -2%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $58 −$1 -2%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $412 +$26 +6%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $410 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $432 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records