Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:47:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x704d…9483 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-11%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$61
14 days−$6
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$307
other 11% +$51
crypto 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.6% +3.6% 69% 69% -19.1%
≤30d 22 +12.5% +1.8% 68% 68% -13.0%
≤90d 46 +16.7% +5.6% 67% 67% -21.0%
all 58 +16.5% +5.4% 59% 59% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 59% -20.4%
10% -4.7% 55% -28.0%
15% -13.9% 38% -35.0%
20% -22.3% 33% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage114d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Murtazali Magomedov 74¢ 74¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $99 +$34 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $40 +$12 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$25 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $37 +$11 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $25 +$28 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $30 +$14 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $30 +$23 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $16 +$4 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 31 $40 −$14 -35%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $32 +$8 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $30 +$10 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 18 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $30 +$18 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $30 +$18 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $30 +$16 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 12 $57 −$56 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $30 +$10 +34%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $21 +$9 +43%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $66 −$65 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $40 −$16 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $41 +$39 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 01 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 01 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $97 −$97 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $150 −$148 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei Apr 19 $100 +$31 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $100 +$22 +22%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $155 −$13 -8%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $101 +$85 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $52 +$88 +169%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 74¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 44¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 44¢ $4 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 55¢ $6 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 66¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 68¢ $4 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 68¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 67¢ $13 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 70¢ $21 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 75¢ $38 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 76¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 78¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 65¢ $6 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 67¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 70¢ $14 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 74¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 75¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 76¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.33 · official $71.33 (match) · 152 history records