Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7053…887a politics 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,960 (+2%) realized +$4,959 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%27W / 155L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,592per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$22
14 days−$42
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$5,331
politics 36% −$135
sports 10% −$274
world 3% −$9
economics 2% −$6
culture 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +0.1% -9.4% 7% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 126 -1.6% -11.0% 4% 2% -9.7%
all 182 +5.3% -4.7% 15% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 10% -8.0%
10% -13.9% 10% -16.8%
15% -22.2% 9% -24.8%
20% -29.8% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,260) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$10 · ×23.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized+$4,959
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses27 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,592
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $151 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $5,747 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $5,115 −$6 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,816 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $474 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $909 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,818 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,031 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,655 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,038 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,570 −$5 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $7,397 −$8 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,870 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,926 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,419 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $612 −$1 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $71 +$74 +105%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $801 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $54 +$56 +105%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,919 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $450 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $5,070 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,760 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,818 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $5,575 −$6 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $723 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $62 +$63 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $308 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $308 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 21h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 23h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 23h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 27h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $345 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $346 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $277 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $277 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $474 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $474 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $151 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $212 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $230 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $230 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $218 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $282 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $773 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $774 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $699 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.56 · official $320.56 (match) · 673 history records