Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7055…49bb sports 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$702 (-4%) realized −$756 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%101W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$403est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$279
14 days−$1,105
30 days−$2,737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,280
other 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -38.9% -44.7% 31% 31% -29.6%
≤30d 200 -42.0% -47.5% 28% 24% -30.6%
≤90d 285 -27.1% -34.1% 35% 29% -22.0%
all 285 -27.1% -34.1% 35% 29% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 29% -22.0%
10% -40.4% 24% -29.4%
15% -46.1% 20% -36.3%
20% -51.4% 17% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$35 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$756
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses101 / 184
Est. fees paid−$403
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage58d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ 100¢ $28 $82 +$54 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $93 +$128 +138%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 25 $91 +$40 +44%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $88 −$86 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $150 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $92 −$91 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $202 −$5 -2%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $155 −$49 -32%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $173 −$70 -40%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $83 −$41 -50%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $49 +$63 +129%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $38 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $107 +$42 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $131 +$38 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $186 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 −$111 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $40 −$13 -32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$104 +167%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $109 −$8 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $114 −$13 -11%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $143 −$109 -76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $106 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $96 +$118 +123%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $83 −$71 -86%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $109 −$101 -92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$91 +89%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $118 −$12 -10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$49 -48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$30 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $111 +$46 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $111 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $79 −$78 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $73 −$1 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$16 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ $29 44m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $220 50m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 41¢ $93 1h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $131 1h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 69¢ $88 3h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 72¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 25¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 35¢ $83 3h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $150 18h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 17¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 52¢ $91 19h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 33¢ $44 21h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 25¢ $42 21h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 92¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 71¢ $190 22h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 72¢ $202 22h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $205 23h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 39¢ $71 23h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 57¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 23¢ $32 23h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 54¢ $101 23h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 53¢ $3 24h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 30¢ $50 24h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $102 24h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 26¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 37¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 64¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 71¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 75¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 69¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.31 · official $82.31 (match) · 770 history records