Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7057…e59c sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 495d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,883 (-18%) realized −$1,919 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$473
sports 26% −$952
crypto 22% −$620
politics 9% −$515
world 8% −$173
tech 3% +$27
finance 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 50% 50% -5.4%
all 66 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 44% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 44% -27.8%
10% -35.8% 30% -34.7%
15% -42.0% 24% -41.0%
20% -47.7% 21% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$108 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

495d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized−$1,919
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)66 / 78
History coverage495d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $201 −$146 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$51 -50%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$313 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$16 -52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jan 26 $340 −$340 -100%
Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX? Jan 26 $135 +$181 +134%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $22 +$2 +8%
Will New England face Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX? Jan 26 $88 −$66 -75%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $143 +$80 +56%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 19 $70 +$73 +104%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $148 −$148 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5 Jan 18 $100 −$52 -52%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 1 Jan 12 $500 −$135 -27%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 12 $300 +$37 +12%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $234 +$34 +15%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $40 +$93 +233%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $42 +$48 +113%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $42 +$9 +20%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jan 05 $100 −$33 -33%
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? Jan 01 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison? Jan 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 01 $284 +$36 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 28 $95 −$93 -98%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 24 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $280 +$27 +10%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 33m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 23¢ $55 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $49 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 26h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 29h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 69¢ $50 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 32h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $819 33h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $765.93 · official $765.97 (match) · 195 history records