Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7058…6a5b other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 34% +$3
politics 8% −$5
crypto 3% −$2
tech 2% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.5% -7.3% 33% 17% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 12% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 14% -8.7%
all 51 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage471d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $11 +$2 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $82 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $45 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $28 +$3 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 30 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will X buy TikTok? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $42 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $42 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 184 history records