Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7059…bb76 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate73%43W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$12
crypto 11% +$3
other 3% −$33
world 1% −$4
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 59 -3.3% -12.5% 73% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage560d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $22 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Magic Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5,206 −$5 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Dec 30 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Dec 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Dec 21 $5 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 99¢ $60 31d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $42 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 150d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $52 183d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 99¢ $22 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 395d
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? BUY No 100¢ $6 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.65 · official $55.65 (match) · 120 history records