Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705a…3585 crypto 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$146 (-5%) realized −$165 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%85W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days+$33
14 days−$39
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$151
other 38% −$80
world 8% +$95
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.2% -58.6% 22% 22% -6.1%
≤30d 178 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 37% -15.9%
≤90d 178 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 37% -15.9%
all 178 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 37% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 37% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 29% -24.0%
15% -33.5% 25% -31.3%
20% -40.1% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses85 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage18d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 78¢ $375 $394 +$19 (+5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? No 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $238 +$95 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $208 +$360 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $83 −$82 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 −$55 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 $0 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$7 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$13 +212%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$13 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $40 2m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $205 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $174 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 21¢ $10 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $104 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 18¢ $13 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 71¢ $238 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $208 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 27¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 26¢ $132 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 61¢ $83 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $46 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 36¢ $11 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 17¢ $16 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $22 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 8¢ $2 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $2 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.11 · official $434.49 (match) · 471 history records