Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705b…a7b9 crypto 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$639 (-12%) realized −$639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%65W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$554
14 days−$544
30 days−$776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$237
crypto 28% −$70
other 19% −$172
politics 10% −$285
world 5% −$144
weather 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -48.3% -53.3% 26% 23% -28.5%
≤30d 139 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 27% -25.4%
≤90d 141 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 28% -22.4%
all 191 -22.7% -30.1% 34% 31% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 31% -23.1%
10% -36.8% 28% -30.4%
15% -42.9% 25% -37.2%
20% -48.5% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses65 / 126
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage191d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $194 +$124 +64%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $241 −$152 -63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$8 -39%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $161 +$122 +76%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$18 -39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$37 -71%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $123 −$87 -71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$16 +80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$22 +37%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 +$61 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$86 +84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$51 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 −$19 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $193 +$203 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 −$25 -52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $96 −$83 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $90 +$25 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Fraud" during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 27 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $318 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $194 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $88 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $241 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $263 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $9 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $140 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $153 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $37 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 20¢ $36 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $61 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $102 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $153 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 465 history records