Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705d…d760 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-30%) realized −$180 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$30
14 days−$173
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$83
sports 34% −$101
politics 10% −$3
world 7% −$16
crypto 4% −$19
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 45% 40% -19.9%
≤30d 33 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 39% -41.7%
≤90d 43 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 37% -44.1%
all 43 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 37% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 37% -44.1%
10% -31.8% 30% -49.4%
15% -38.3% 30% -54.3%
20% -44.4% 21% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage39d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 57¢ 83¢ $32 $46 +$14 (+45%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Yes 42¢ 22¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-38%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$4 +12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $21 −$16 -79%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $41 −$19 -47%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $32 −$7 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $8 +$9 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +20%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 32m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $32 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $29 9h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 31h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.46 · official $75.46 (match) · 138 history records