Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x705e…a25f other 37 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-17%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$84
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$35
crypto 29% −$113
sports 7% −$5
weather 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -39.2% -45.0% 16% 12% -26.1%
≤30d 37 -41.6% -47.2% 14% 11% -27.4%
≤90d 37 -41.6% -47.2% 14% 11% -27.4%
all 37 -41.6% -47.2% 14% 11% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 11% -27.4%
10% -52.2% 11% -34.3%
15% -56.8% 11% -40.7%
20% -61.1% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$9 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $46 −$37 -79%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$8 -63%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $47 −$42 -88%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $34 −$22 -64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $16 −$4 -24%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $36 +$144 +401%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $41 −$22 -55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$6 +70%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 +$24 +216%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $27 +$36 +133%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$6 -66%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $14 −$6 -46%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $46 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 45h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records