Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7062…3c5e crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-28%) realized −$43 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$21
sports 37% $0
other 15% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.7% -40.0% 21% 21% -50.9%
≤30d 48 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -41.6%
≤90d 48 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -41.6%
all 48 -23.2% -30.5% 29% 29% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 29% -41.6%
10% -37.1% 29% -47.2%
15% -43.2% 27% -52.3%
20% -48.8% 27% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+491%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +287%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +246%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $28 −$8 -28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$6 +523%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 33h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 38h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.81 · official $7.81 (match) · 98 history records