Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7065…8faf world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$32
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$35
other 17% −$1
sports 8% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% +$32
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 33 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 0% -10.7%
all 68 +0.6% -9.0% 34% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage310d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $77 $78 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $128 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $106 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $65 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $229 −$34 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $127 −$4 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $136 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $74 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $4 $0 -11%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $134 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $98 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $17 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jan 31 $47 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Quiroga win by 12-20%? Aug 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $77 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $60 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $60 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 21h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $75 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $74 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $39 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $67 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $63 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $71 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $65 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $65 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $66 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.20 · official $77.78 (match) · 259 history records