Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
70 0x7065…4926 sports 22 markets active 5d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+17%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +65.4% +49.7% 100% 100% +49.7%
≤30d 4 +9.8% -0.6% 75% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 22 +17.4% +6.3% 73% 68% +5.3%
all 22 +17.4% +6.3% 73% 68% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 68% +5.3%
10% -3.9% 68% -4.7%
15% -13.2% 64% -13.9%
20% -21.7% 50% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $5 $0 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $5 5d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S BUY FULL SENSE 59¢ $4 11d
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY NRG 92¢ $5 31d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 BUY G2 Esports 73¢ $5 31d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 32d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 30¢ $5 32d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs SELL 100 Thieves 100¢ $9 32d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $5 32d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 60¢ $5 33d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $5 33d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 60¢ $5 34d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $5 34d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 44¢ $5 34d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Global Esports 47¢ $5 34d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $5 34d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL G2 100¢ $7 36d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 73¢ $5 36d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 100¢ $7 38d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 46¢ $3 38d
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega SELL NRG 100¢ $7 38d
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega BUY NRG 72¢ $5 38d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 45¢ $5 39d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $8 39d
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL T1 100¢ $4 39d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $5 39d
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 69¢ $3 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records