Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7069…325b sports 772 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,861 (+10%) realized +$24,819 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%364W / 399L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$3,700est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,996
7 days+$2,813
14 days+$1,565
30 days+$6,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$14,220
other 5% +$1,300
world 0% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +34.1% +21.4% 59% 59% +12.4%
≤30d 280 +13.7% +2.9% 49% 48% -3.2%
≤90d 763 +9.0% -1.3% 48% 48% -3.4%
all 763 +9.0% -1.3% 48% 48% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 48% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -12.6%
15% -19.4% 47% -21.0%
20% -27.3% 47% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$281 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,300
Realized+$24,819
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses364 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,700
Open positions6
Markets (closed)763 / 772
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$309
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 58¢ $420 $439 +$19 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $242 $296 +$55 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $248 $208 −$40 (-16%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 46¢ $184 $182 −$2 (-1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 33¢ 35¢ $165 $175 +$10 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 55¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 233 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $155 −$152 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $216 +$238 +110%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $157 +$233 +148%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $292 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $476 +$1,022 +215%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $1,055 +$943 +89%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $337 +$268 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $374 −$256 -68%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $218 +$311 +143%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $298 −$294 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $298 −$294 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 +$193 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $406 +$393 +97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $244 +$236 +97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $187 +$213 +114%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $440 +$491 +112%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $188 +$311 +165%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $509 +$654 +129%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $446 −$446 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $811 +$619 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $357 −$357 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $298 +$300 +101%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $713 −$705 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $776 −$765 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $497 −$496 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $188 +$312 +165%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $131 +$169 +129%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 15 $395 −$390 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $159 +$241 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $367 +$632 +172%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $497 +$501 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $527 −$520 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $244 −$240 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $517 −$510 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $343 −$340 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $344 −$340 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $529 +$769 +145%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $250 +$450 +180%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $272 +$327 +120%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $255 −$12 -5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $300 −$230 -77%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $761 +$655 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $299 −$294 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $338 −$333 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $361 +$553 +153%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $638 −$634 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $411 +$288 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $187 21m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $168 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $426 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $281 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $122 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $54 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $54 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 55¢ $275 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 55¢ $550 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 38¢ $155 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren SELL August Holmgren 100¢ $453 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren SELL August Holmgren 21¢ $2 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY August Holmgren 46¢ $216 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino SELL Andrea Pellegrino 100¢ $390 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 40¢ $14 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Andrea Pellegrino 40¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,300.26 · official $1,299.75 (match) · 3500 history records