Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

70 0x706a…6673 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$1 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+8.1%	-2.2%	67%	67%	+37.9%
≤30d	3	+8.1%	-2.2%	67%	67%	+37.9%
≤90d	3	+8.1%	-2.2%	67%	67%	+37.9%
all	3	+8.1%	-2.2%	67%	67%	+37.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.2%	67%	+37.9%
10%	-11.6%	67%	+24.7%
15%	-20.1%	67%	+12.7%
20%	-27.9%	67%	+1.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.17 per $1 lost it wins $9.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$29	$33	+$4 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$17	+$12	+67%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$13	+$7	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$29	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$29	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$17	4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$13	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.57 · official $32.57 (match) · 7 history records