Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x706c…cf2c sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$66
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$10
other 11% $0
crypto 8% +$6
world 5% −$22
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 75% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -6.0% -14.9% 77% 46% -9.7%
all 19 -9.2% -17.9% 79% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -11.8%
10% -25.7% 26% -20.2%
15% -32.9% 16% -28.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$53 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage170d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $77 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $108 −$106 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $85 +$40 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $97 +$27 +27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $137 +$40 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $113 +$47 +42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 15 $54 +$26 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? May 15 $86 +$6 +8%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? May 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 15 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $38 −$38 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 29 $46 −$46 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $420 in January? Feb 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 04 $23 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 07 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $78 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $108 8d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 67¢ $85 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $97 20d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $137 26d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $113 34d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 64¢ $38 42d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 67¢ $46 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $54 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? BUY No 92¢ $86 60d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $20 90d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $14 97d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 107d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $11 110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $23 127d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 147d
Will Google reach $420 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $23 151d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 161d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.64 · official $76.64 (match) · 35 history records