Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x706c…1ca6 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$525 (-26%) realized −$521 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days−$353
14 days−$471
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$394
other 8% −$68
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -20.3% -27.9% 32% 30% -25.8%
≤30d 48 -21.9% -29.4% 31% 29% -30.3%
≤90d 48 -21.9% -29.4% 31% 29% -30.3%
all 48 -21.9% -29.4% 31% 29% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 29% -30.3%
10% -36.1% 29% -37.0%
15% -42.3% 29% -43.1%
20% -48.0% 27% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$31 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $23 +$2 +7%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $62 +$89 +142%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $31 −$7 -22%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $28 −$11 -41%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -51%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $66 +$33 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $39 +$47 +121%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $28 +$25 +88%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 −$15 -76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $39 +$38 +98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$40 +203%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $55 +$44 +80%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $113 −$112 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 +$32 +92%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $60 −$43 -72%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 −$14 -17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$20 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$12 -31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 +$43 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $29 −$20 -67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $150 −$15 -10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$58 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 −$26 -44%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $18 −$2 -10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$31 +61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$87 +143%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $132 −$129 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $120 −$118 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 43m
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 43m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 48m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $17 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 34¢ $8 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $23 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $129 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $25 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $29 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $31 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 29¢ $22 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $0 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $29 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $4 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 81¢ $100 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $66 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $87 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $21 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $18 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $14 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.78 · official $79.97 (match) · 135 history records