Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x706d…0c99 world 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%34W / 62L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
sports 30% +$7
other 23% −$11
politics 2% +$2
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 36 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 49 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 2% -9.6%
all 96 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses34 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage480d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $171 +$4 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $181 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $243 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $93 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $154 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $336 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $157 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$3 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $179 +$7 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $161 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $435 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $348 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $148 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $563 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $162 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $536 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $164 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $149 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $211 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $295 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $146 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $26 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $69 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $311 −$15 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $144 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $158 +$12 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $227 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $914 +$3 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2,933 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $922 −$11 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $121 +$3 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $1,012 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $124 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $145 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $171 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $156 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $126 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $85 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $76 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $56 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $56 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.91 · official $123.90 (match) · 392 history records