Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x706e…537f politics 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$12
other 25% −$4
crypto 3% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,087) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage96d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $83 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,085 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Mar 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,089 12m
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $64 21m
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 29m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 40m
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 50m
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 1h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 1h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 32h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 32h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 32h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 33h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 33h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $65 33h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 37h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 37h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 2d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 2d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,109 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records