Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7071…91df weather 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$941 (-3%) realized −$930 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$26
14 days−$46
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$594
sports 19% −$174
world 17% −$82
politics 13% −$56
finance 8% −$54
tech 4% −$13
crypto 3% +$47
weather 2% −$50
culture 1% −$23
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.6% -18.2% 12% 0% -15.8%
≤30d 46 -15.4% -23.5% 15% 2% -22.8%
≤90d 73 -18.6% -26.4% 14% 1% -16.5%
all 143 -12.0% -20.4% 14% 3% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 3% -12.0%
10% -28.0% 2% -20.4%
15% -34.9% 1% -28.1%
20% -41.3% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$930
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage551d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Yes 79¢ 46¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 25 $9 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $33 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 −$10 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 17 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $22 −$4 -18%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $373 −$196 -53%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Arcade Esports vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 09 $4 −$3 -60%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $61 −$6 -10%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $50 −$2 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 01 $70 −$4 -6%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 an May 21 $1 $0 -43%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $402 −$18 -4%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 20 $276 −$23 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $757 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? SELL No 8¢ $4 22m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 68¢ $11 32m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 34¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 29¢ $7 34m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 34¢ $3 35m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 21¢ $4 49m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 21¢ $7 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 39¢ $9 52m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 39¢ $1 52m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 43¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 42¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $26 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 82¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 41¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 33¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 59¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL No 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL No 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL No 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 41¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 41¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 34¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.68 · official $17.04 · 715 history records