Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7072…eb57 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$458 (+6%) realized +$432 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%70W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,441
7 days−$1,389
14 days−$1,393
30 days−$1,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,030
other 12% −$271
sports 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -22.8% -30.1% 44% 34% -26.3%
≤30d 77 -19.4% -27.1% 49% 38% -26.3%
≤90d 135 -14.6% -22.7% 52% 40% -25.9%
all 135 -14.6% -22.7% 52% 40% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 40% -25.9%
10% -30.1% 33% -33.0%
15% -36.9% 30% -39.5%
20% -43.1% 24% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$60 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses70 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage44d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $203 −$201 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $311 −$311 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $319 −$319 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$102 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$164 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $305 −$2 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $629 +$391 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$137 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $621 +$630 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $311 +$306 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$295 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $358 +$236 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $285 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $269 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $105 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1,020 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $315 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $314 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $306 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.06 · official $124.65 · 296 history records