Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7076…42b1 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+8%) realized +$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$3
crypto 44% −$37
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 57% -25.4%
≤30d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 57% -25.4%
≤90d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 57% -25.4%
all 7 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 57% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 57% -25.4%
10% -23.1% 43% -32.6%
15% -30.5% 43% -39.1%
20% -37.3% 43% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$5 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.94 · official $38.94 (match) · 22 history records