Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7076…ecf7 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-11%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate66%67W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$22
other 24% −$1
weather 20% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.0% -9.5% 83% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 58 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 58 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 0% -11.6%
all 102 -12.7% -21.0% 66% 15% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 15% -19.9%
10% -28.6% 14% -27.5%
15% -35.5% 11% -34.5%
20% -41.8% 9% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses67 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records