Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7077…e6b7 other 139 markets active 11h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,103 (+1%) realized +$1,103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$792per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$40
politics 37% +$5
sports 21% +$1,154
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% +$1
world 1% −$91
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -14.2% -22.4% 8% 1% -10.3%
all 137 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -8.6%
10% -18.0% 8% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 7% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,114) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$8 · ×8.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$908
Realized+$1,103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage144d
Avg bet$792
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $387 $388 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,253 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $778 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $457 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $519 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,576 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,595 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 01 $168 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $179 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $202 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $314 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $389 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 21 $283 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3,274 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $781 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $520 11h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $502 2d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $502 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $499 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $500 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $548 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $549 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $546 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $546 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $547 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $478 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $510 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $511 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $456 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $457 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $542 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $542 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $518 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $519 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $517 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $518 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $515 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $515 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $544 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $545 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $511 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $511 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.71 · official $907.71 (match) · 461 history records