trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 77¢ | $498,348 | $455,911 | −$42,437 (-9%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 50¢ | $120,000 | $72,894 | −$47,105 (-39%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 38¢ | $100,000 | $59,278 | −$40,721 (-41%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 41¢ | 6¢ | $5,000 | $792 | −$4,208 (-84%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 31¢ | 1¢ | $500 | $12 | −$488 (-98%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $2,000 | $0 | −$2,000 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $2,500 | $0 | −$2,500 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $2,500 | $0 | −$2,500 (-100%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $1,500 | $0 | −$1,500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $5,044 | +$1,352 | +27% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $2,539 | +$1,536 | +60% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 10 | $1,500 | −$1,500 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 10 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $229,900 | +$8,401 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 05 | $2,069 | −$2,000 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 05 | $2,567 | −$2,500 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 05 | $2,584 | −$2,500 | -97% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $13,517 | +$17 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -21.8% | -29.3% | 60% | 40% | -6.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 44% | 22% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 44% | 22% | -8.7% |
| all | 9 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 44% | 22% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -50.6% | 22% | -8.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -55.4% | 22% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -59.7% | 11% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -63.6% | 11% | -32.7% |