Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x707b…fe95 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+13%) realized +$145 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$31
14 days+$133
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$84
tech 19% +$15
world 18% −$15
politics 12% −$19
sports 5% +$131
crypto 3% +$67
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.8% -22.9% 33% 33% +17.7%
≤30d 12 +164.2% +139.0% 33% 33% +29.4%
≤90d 28 +68.2% +52.2% 39% 32% +8.8%
all 29 +65.9% +50.1% 38% 31% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.1% 31% +8.6%
10% +35.7% 31% -1.8%
15% +22.6% 28% -11.3%
20% +10.6% 28% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +133% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$5 · ×6.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 52
History coverage146d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $10 +$4 (+80%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $30 −$6 -20%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 +$47 +76%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $96 −$9 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $3 +$128 +4140%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $17 −$3 -20%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 04 $16 +$13 +86%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $39 +$67 +171%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $15 +$35 +232%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 19 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 18 $19 +$13 +71%
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 17 $24 −$3 -13%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 06 $93 +$5 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $58 +$14 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $184 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 08 $190 −$2 -1%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Jan 31 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $24 4h
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.32 · official $88.88 · 126 history records