Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x707c…a478
crypto · 634 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,179 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,544 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses470 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)634 / 634
History coverage60d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 634 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$799
14 days−$1,886
30 days−$1,707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $178 $0 −$178 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $95 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $436 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $286 +$74 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $199 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $92 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $195 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$23 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $298 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $111 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $299 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $344 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $289 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $201 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $83 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $293 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $158 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $184 −$84 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $339 −$139 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $79 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $32 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $87 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $286 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $97 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $70 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 19% -11.4%
≤30d 488 -1.9% -11.3% 80% 25% -11.2%
≤90d 634 -5.8% -14.8% 74% 27% -11.8%
all 634 -5.8% -14.8% 74% 27% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 27% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 11% -20.2%
15% -30.4% 6% -28.0%
20% -37.2% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1983 history records