Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x707e…a614 sports 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$383 (-2%) realized −$595 · open +$212
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%96W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$418
14 days+$497
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$396
world 10% −$14
other 9% −$25
politics 2% +$4
finance 1% −$23
economics 0% −$19
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% +11.3%
≤30d 59 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 39% +5.6%
≤90d 155 -13.4% -21.7% 42% 39% -9.7%
all 257 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 34% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -12.6%
10% -30.3% 33% -21.0%
15% -37.0% 30% -28.6%
20% -43.2% 26% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$595
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses96 / 161
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)257 / 262
History coverage201d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $150 $361 +$211 (+141%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $52 +$34 +65%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $53 −$3 -5%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$25 +48%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $51 +$47 +93%
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $20 −$7 -36%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $304 +$215 +71%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $71 +$31 +44%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 −$13 -9%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$41 +134%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $199 +$150 +75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $203 +$164 +81%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 +$56 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $76 +$58 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$4 -20%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$21 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $49 +$47 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$33 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$16 +107%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $50 +$79 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $117 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 81¢ $86 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $52 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $50 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $53 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 30¢ $26 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $75 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 17¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 17¢ $13 27h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 25¢ $20 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $519 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 30h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $71 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $36 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $38 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 96¢ $98 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 88¢ $102 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $51 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $139 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $71 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $152 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $72 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $138 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.37 · official $477.39 (match) · 708 history records