Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7083…6ac6 other 38 markets active 2d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-17%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$8
sports 22% −$2
world 5% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -36.0% -42.1% 35% 30% -18.5%
≤30d 22 -41.9% -47.4% 32% 27% -22.9%
≤90d 36 -34.9% -41.1% 31% 28% -25.2%
all 36 -34.9% -41.1% 31% 28% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 28% -25.2%
10% -46.7% 28% -32.4%
15% -51.9% 28% -38.9%
20% -56.6% 19% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage48d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -34%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $1 −$1 -67%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$6 +124%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 $0 +38%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 30d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 30d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $9 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.61 · official $1.61 (match) · 54 history records