Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x7084…9c30 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$218 (+2%) realized +$219 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%65W / 5L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$27
other 40% +$18
politics 6% +$162
tech 4% +$1
world 3% +$63
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.3%
all 70 +2.6% -7.1% 93% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 9% -7.6%
10% -16.0% 7% -16.4%
15% -24.1% 7% -24.5%
20% -31.6% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses65 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage619d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $180 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $144 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $150 +$1 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 13 $265 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 24 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 24 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $388 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on March 23? Apr 10 $45 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $238 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $46 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 03 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 03 $212 $0 +0%
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Jan 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jan 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 15 $175 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 03 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 9? Jan 03 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,900 on November 18? Dec 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 17? Dec 09 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 18? Dec 09 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 10? Nov 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 10 $35 $0 +1%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 10 $345 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Oct 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Oct 29 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 24 $355 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22? Sep 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 20 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8? Aug 20 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $400 +$2 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 28 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jul 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 25 $227 +$1 +0%
India military action against Pakistan before June? Jun 17 $8 +$13 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 5d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $144 5d
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 13d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 30d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $143 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $117 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $143 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 40d
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $144 40d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 59d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 59d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 67d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $135 67d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $388 72d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $45 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 108d
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $238 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 132d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 132d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $245 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.45 · official $393.45 (match) · 152 history records